China’s electricity consumption is growing faster than its gross domestic product (GDP), fueled by the expansion of energy-intensive industries and the accelerating electrification of transport and digital infrastructure.
According to GlobalData, electricity demand in China is forecast to reach 13,757 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3 percent between 2024 and 2030.
The report, titled “China Power Market Outlook to 2035, Update 2025 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape,” highlights that China’s real GDP (in 2015 USD) is projected to rise from $2,018.8 billion in 2024 to $2,319.9 billion in 2030. Despite a slight population decline — from 1,412 million in 2020 to 1,410 million in 2024 — electricity demand continues to surge, supported by rapid industrialization and expanding electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure.
“In recent years, China’s electricity consumption has expanded at a significant pace relative to that of other nations,” said Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Senior Power Analyst at GlobalData. “The growth in generation from hydropower and renewables has resulted in excess capacity at many coal-fired plants. As a result, the government has imposed a moratorium on new coal-based plants in key economic zones such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing.”
While China transitions from heavy industries to service and high-tech sectors, the role of coal is expected to diminish. However, coal will likely remain the primary source of power generation in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, China faces short-term challenges from rising energy costs and commodity prices, though its energy partnership with Russia could ensure steady supplies of oil, coal, and gas under favorable terms.
In 2024, the industrial sector accounted for the largest share of power consumption at 67 percent, followed by the residential (15.6 percent), commercial (4.4 percent), and transport (2.3 percent) sectors. Other categories made up 10.7 percent of electricity usage.
Emerging sectors — including electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, data centers, and 5G infrastructure — are rapidly expanding and placing additional pressure on power demand due to their electricity-intensive nature.
GlobalData identifies three key areas for investment in China’s evolving power market: gas-based generation, renewable energy, and smart grid infrastructure. The shift toward gas is part of China’s strategy to reduce coal dependency, while renewables — particularly wind and solar — continue to gain momentum.
Saibasan noted that offshore wind will be a key growth area, with China focusing on building larger turbines to lower costs and align electricity prices with market levels. The government’s focus on improving electricity supply infrastructure and grid efficiency is expected to drive further investment in smart grid technologies.
GreentechLead.com News Desk