Global offshore wind targets remain strong enough to support a tripling of installed capacity by 2030, according to new analysis by Ember and the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA). Despite recent setbacks in the United States, momentum continues to build worldwide as countries recognize offshore wind as a cornerstone of their clean energy transition strategies.
The report highlights that 27 countries, 27 subnational governments, and 3 regions have set offshore wind targets, underscoring growing global confidence in the technology. Collectively, these national targets add up to 263 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, excluding China, which has yet to announce a national goal.
Forecast downgrades reflect short-term headwinds
The report assumes significance because both GWEC and the IEA have downgraded their offshore wind outlooks for 2030 due to cost inflation, policy uncertainty, and supply chain issues. GWEC reduced its forecast by 25 percent. IEA’s latest projection shows 27 percent less capacity expected between 2025 and 2030 compared to its October 2024 outlook. The largest reduction stems from the United States, though China remains dominant, projected to account for about 61 percent of global offshore wind capacity by 2030.
Europe and Asia lead offshore wind ambitions
Ember said Europe continues to lead, with 15 countries targeting a combined 99 GW by 2030. The United Kingdom remains the largest single market, aiming for up to 50 GW. In Asia, India plans 30-37 GW, Japan targets 41 GW (including 15 GW of floating offshore wind by 2040), while South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam together plan an additional 41 GW.
China has also raised its ambitions. Under the Beijing Declaration 2.0 signed on October 20, the country pledged to install at least 15 GW of offshore wind capacity annually between 2026 and 2030, nearly doubling its earlier pace. Eleven coastal provinces have already set 2025 targets totaling 64 GW.
US slowdown contrasts with global progress
The United States maintains its 30 GW national goal for 2030, but policy uncertainty and market challenges have slowed progress. Still, 11 U.S. states have subnational targets totaling 84 GW, and around 5.8 GW of new capacity is expected to come online between 2025 and 2029.
Long-term vision beyond 2030
Eighteen countries have announced offshore wind goals beyond 2030, reflecting a long-term commitment to integrating the technology into national energy plans. Several have legally backed these commitments, including Germany, France, Greece, and Türkiye. Seven countries have set specific targets for floating offshore wind, a pre-commercial technology with strong potential for deeper waters.
Industry experts emphasize urgency and opportunity
Dave Jones, Chief Analyst at Ember, said: “Offshore wind already delivers 83 GW of capacity globally, enough to power 73 million homes. To countries thinking about agreeing new targets or extending existing targets, the message is clear: now is the time to act, to help spur the next wave of growth.”
Amisha Patel, Head of Secretariat at GOWA, said: “Despite recent challenges, the fundamentals of offshore wind energy remain strong. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals depends on large-scale offshore wind deployment. With Brazil joining GOWA at COP28 and assuming the COP30 Presidency, we urge the Presidency to turn ambition into implementation and to recognise offshore wind as a cornerstone of global climate action.”
Global capacity outlook
The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) projects that offshore wind capacity will nearly triple from 83 GW in 2024 to 238 GW by 2030. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects between 224 GW and 270 GW by 2030, depending on the scenario. Achieving these levels will require tripling annual installations to about 26 GW per year.
Although some nations may miss their 2030 goals, the targets have been instrumental in driving investment, policy reform, and supply chain growth. Offshore wind is also gaining recognition in national climate commitments, with eight countries including Japan, Türkiye, Vietnam, Brazil, and the United Kingdom referencing it in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Regional and policy trends
At the subnational level, 27 provinces or states across five countries have their own offshore wind targets. The United States leads with 11 states totaling 84 GW, while South Korea has three provincial goals. China, Australia, and Canada also have regional targets despite lacking national goals.
Analysts note that aligning national targets with timely policy reforms and close collaboration between governments and industry will be essential for translating ambition into actual deployment. Offshore wind remains a proven technology that can enhance energy security, industrial growth, and resilience to climate challenges.
Baburajan Kizhakedath