The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said it anticipates a rebound in Brent crude oil prices, predicting they will exceed $80 per barrel in September.
This follows a dip to $73 per barrel on September 6. The EIA’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts an average price of $82 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Key factors influencing this rise include OPEC+ decisions to delay production increases until December, despite initial plans for an October hike. As global oil consumption is projected to surpass production, market forces are expected to push prices higher in the coming months. EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis highlighted uncertainties, particularly regarding Chinese demand growth and potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
OPEC said the price of OPEC basket of twelve crudes stood at $72.23 a barrel on Monday, compared with $73.20 the previous Friday, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations.
In addition to oil, the STEO also offers insights into natural gas, propane, and biofuels markets:
Natural Gas: Henry Hub prices are expected to remain stable through 2024 before rising in 2025. U.S. natural gas production is forecast to reach a record 105 billion cubic feet per day by 2025, driven by increasing liquefied natural gas exports.
Propane: U.S. average retail propane prices for the upcoming heating season are projected to remain flat at $2.50 per gallon, with regional variations ranging from $3.35 per gallon on the East Coast to $2.00 in the Midwest.
Biofuels: Biofuels are gaining a larger share of U.S. distillate fuel consumption, accounting for 9 percent of the total in 2024, up from 8 percent in 2023.
Additionally, the report forecasts growing electricity generation, primarily driven by solar power, which accounted for 59 percent of U.S. generating capacity additions in the first half of 2024. Significant gains in solar generation are expected in Texas and California.