China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) revealed significant long-term forecasts on global and Chinese energy trends.
Sinopec predicts global primary energy consumption will peak at 26.71 billion tonnes of coal equivalent by 2045, with renewables comprising 51.8 percent of energy use by 2060.
Energy consumption will slow, reaching 25.25 billion tonnes by 2060, with oil and gas contributing 35.7 percent.
Oil demand is projected to peak at 4.66 billion tonnes by 2030, shifting focus from transportation to industrial uses, but will still account for 40 percent of transport energy by 2060.
Non-fossil energy sources, including hydrogen, CCUS, and advanced storage, will expand significantly, with hydrogen’s share rising to nearly 50 percent by 2060 and CCUS capacity reaching 4.7 billion tonnes by 2060.
China’s energy outlook
China’s energy outlook predicts primary energy consumption will peak post-2030 at 6.8–7.1 billion tonnes of coal equivalent, with oil peaking before 2027 at 800 million tonnes.
Non-fossil energy power generation will surpass fossil fuels by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption growing to 27 percent by 2030.
The energy transition will incorporate diverse sources like electricity, hydrogen, and ammonia.
Carbon emissions will peak at 10.8–11.2 billion tonnes by 2030, ensuring China meets its carbon peak target.
The 2025 China Energy & Chemical Industry Development Report highlights stabilizing oil refining capacity at 960–970 million tonnes annually by 2025.
The chemical sector faces challenges like excess capacity in olefin and aromatic hydrocarbons. Innovation is identified as the key driver for sustainable growth in China’s energy and chemical industries.
Baburajan Kizhakedath