China and India are emerging as Asia’s two most important solar markets, but their competitive positions are very different. India had 164.59 GW of installed solar capacity as of July 31, 2026 and approximately 233 GW of module manufacturing capacity by June, while China continues to dominate the global photovoltaic supply chain.
The China-India solar race is increasingly about more than installed capacity. Factory utilization, manufacturing costs, cells and wafers, technology, exports and storage are becoming critical measures of competitiveness.
India Builds 233 GW Solar Module Manufacturing Base
India’s 233 GW module manufacturing base is among the world’s largest outside China, but low factory utilization remains a major concern.
Indian module factories are estimated to be operating at only 35-40 percent utilization. Module capacity is also nearly seven times India’s cell capacity and around 116 times its ingot and wafer capacity, exposing continued dependence on imported upstream components.
Overcapacity could become more severe because another 135 GW of module manufacturing capacity is reportedly planned or under construction.
Data centers, green hydrogen and exports could create an additional 17-22 GW of annual module demand by 2030, but manufacturers will need stronger utilization, technology and exports to absorb planned capacity.
China Controls Around 85% of Global Solar Supply Chain
China’s advantage comes from vertical integration across polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules.
The International Energy Agency’s solar PV supply-chain analysis estimates China controls around 85 percent of global solar supply-chain production capacity, including approximately 95 percent of wafer manufacturing capacity.
China’s 2025 production illustrates that scale:
Polysilicon: 1.34 million tonnes
Wafers: 680 GW
Solar cells: 660 GW
Modules: 620 GW
The IEA expects China to supply more than 70 percent of global module demand in 2030 and more than 80 percent of wafer and polysilicon demand.
India is therefore competing against an integrated Chinese ecosystem encompassing raw materials, wafers, cells, modules, equipment, batteries and power electronics.
China vs India Solar Module Prices Reveal Cost Gap
Module pricing demonstrates China’s manufacturing advantage.
Chinese TOPCon modules were priced at around $0.108 per watt FOB China in late August 2026, after increasing 2.86 percent week over week.
Prices had recovered from approximately $0.09 per watt in December 2025 and around $0.114 per watt in mid-April 2026, reflecting efforts to address severe overcapacity.
More importantly, the IEA estimates solar manufacturing costs in China can be around 10 percent below India.
India can offset some of the disadvantage through domestic demand, incentives and supply-chain diversification, but long-term export competitiveness will require manufacturers to narrow the cost gap.
Tata Power Invests ₹6,500 Crore in Upstream Manufacturing
Indian manufacturers are responding by moving beyond module assembly into cells, ingots and wafers.
Tata Power’s Tirunelveli operation has approximately 4.3 GW of integrated cell and module manufacturing capacity. TP Solar produced more than 3.8 GW of modules and approximately 3.7 GW of cells in FY2026.
Tata Power has also committed around ₹6,500 crore to develop a 10 GW ingot and wafer manufacturing facility, planned in two 5 GW phases.
The investment could help reduce India’s dependence on imported upstream components.
Waaree Energies is pursuing a similar strategy. Its Indian module manufacturing capacity, including Indosolar, reached approximately 20.17 GW, with products based on G12R TOPCon, G12 TOPCon and G12 HJT technologies.
TOPCon and HJT Raise the Competitive Stakes
The technology transition could determine which factories remain competitive as solar manufacturing capacity expands.
The industry is shifting from conventional PERC modules toward higher-efficiency TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT) and back-contact technologies.
China can deploy new technologies across enormous production facilities while relying on domestic equipment and component suppliers.
India is also investing in TOPCon and HJT, but its rapid capacity expansion creates a risk that older production lines could become less competitive if they cannot be economically upgraded.
Tata Power and Waaree demonstrate how leading Indian manufacturers are responding by investing in higher-efficiency technologies rather than simply expanding conventional module capacity.
China’s Problem Is Solar Overcapacity
China’s challenge is very different from India’s. It already possesses enormous manufacturing scale, but excess capacity has damaged prices and profitability.
Production across several solar manufacturing segments declined during 2025 as overcapacity pressured manufacturers.
Domestic solar deployment also slowed sharply. China installed 72.07 GW during the first half of 2026, down 66 percent from 212.21 GW during the corresponding period of 2025.
Exports are consequently becoming increasingly important.
ASEAN countries spent more than $20 billion on Chinese clean-energy products in 2026, including approximately $4.1 billion on solar panels. Chinese solar exports to ASEAN increased around 90 percent year over year.
China’s established global distribution networks therefore represent another major advantage over emerging manufacturing competitors.
India Targets Global Solar Export Opportunity
India’s biggest opportunity comes from global efforts to diversify solar supply chains beyond China.
The IEA expects India’s share of global clean-energy manufacturing to rise from approximately 4 percent in 2024 to around 10 percent by 2030, when India could become a net exporter of clean-energy technologies.
Indian manufacturers can target the United States, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia, but successful expansion will depend on competitive prices, advanced technology, quality and reliable delivery.
Domestic upstream manufacturing will also be essential. India’s module capacity is already enormous, but continued reliance on imported wafers reduces domestic value addition and exposes manufacturers to supply-chain risks.
Solar Plus Storage Becomes the Next Battleground
Solar competitiveness is also shifting beyond module manufacturing.
Rapidly expanding solar generation creates periods of surplus electricity during daylight hours, increasing demand for batteries capable of shifting renewable electricity into evening periods.
China has another advantage because it possesses one of the world’s largest battery manufacturing ecosystems.
India is building domestic battery capacity, but future competitiveness will increasingly depend on integrating solar cells, modules, batteries, inverters and power electronics.
Grid infrastructure will be equally important. India’s 164.59 GW solar fleet requires continued investment in transmission, storage, forecasting and flexible generation to reduce congestion and curtailment.
China vs India Solar Market Outlook to 2030
China is likely to retain its global solar manufacturing leadership through 2030. It controls around 85 percent of global solar supply-chain production capacity, approximately 95 percent of wafer capacity, and has manufacturing costs estimated to be around 10 percent below India.
India, however, has the potential to become the world’s most important alternative solar manufacturing hub.
Its 233 GW module manufacturing capacity and 164.59 GW domestic solar market provide substantial scale. Investments by Tata Power, Waaree and other manufacturers are also addressing the country’s weakness in cells, ingots and wafers.
But India’s 35-40 percent factory utilization demonstrates why nameplate manufacturing capacity alone is not enough.
China produced 620 GW of modules, 660 GW of cells, 680 GW of wafers and 1.34 million tonnes of polysilicon in 2025, demonstrating a level of integration India has yet to achieve.
India’s challenge through 2030 is therefore not simply to build more factories. It must increase utilization, reduce cost per watt, expand upstream manufacturing, adopt advanced technologies and establish sustainable export markets.
If India’s share of global clean-energy manufacturing rises from 4 percent to around 10 percent by 2030, it could establish itself as the strongest alternative to China. But China will remain the benchmark on manufacturing scale, integration and cost.
SHAFANA FAZAL
