Greentech Lead America: Global Organic Light-Emitting Diode (OLED) lighting industry lacks a true market “champion” that will lead the business forward, according to GII Research.
OLED products business can surpass $2 billion in revenues by 2020 if the industry is able to overcome the market and technical hurdles, according to GII Research.
Some of the challenges the industry needs to look at include performance improvements, standardization, cost reductions, capacity expansion, and development of demand-side market pull.
The market continues to evolve from its earliest days of luxury luminaries and show pieces. Most of the industry’s observers and participants have been targeting the year 2016 as the year that OLED lighting was to really take off.
Unfortunately though, in the past year the market showed no discernible technical advancements and from the manufacturing standpoint, there has been insufficient progress on bringing yields up and costs down to support OLED lighting’s entry into general illumination applications like office lighting.
Production facilities remain insufficient and the economies within both Europe and Japan are severely dampening market prospects.
The report, “OLED Lighting Market Forecasts 2013” examines three possible scenarios for the OLED lighting business:
First, one or two “champion” firms will emerge (perhaps with government support), make substantial performance and process improvements, and sufficiently expand production capacity to bring costs down to a level that with finally enable penetration of general illumination markets.
Second, if no champion emerges, costs stay high, and performance lags the competition then OLED lighting will be relegated to specialty, niche-only luxury lighting with a market value unlikely exceeding $500 million in revenues before the end of the decade. This will certainly lead to a large exodus from the business.
Third, industry fails to attain any reasonable targets – cost or otherwise – and thus relegating the technology to the dustbin of abandoned “revolutionary” technologies.
Another report, “Global Markets and Technologies for Photonic Crystals” from BCC Research finds that OLED lighting output efficiency increases to greater levels with the help of photonic crystal technology. However, a combination of technology and business factors has kept large-scale commercialization of photonic crystals in particular and photonic circuitry in general at bay.