The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has forecasted a 24 percent increase in global primary energy demand, rising from 301 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2023 to 374 mboe/d by 2050.
OPEC projects oil demand will reach 120.1 million barrels per day by mid-century, an increase of 17 million barrels from current levels.
This surge is primarily driven by non-OECD countries, where energy demand is expected to grow by 73.5 mboe/d. India alone accounts for about 30 percent of this increase. In contrast, energy demand in OECD countries is predicted to decline slightly. By 2050, non-OECD countries will make up 71.5 percent of global primary energy demand, up from 64.5 percent in 2023.
Wind and Solar Lead Growth in Energy Sources, While Coal Declines
The Reference Case indicates that, apart from coal, demand for all energy sources will rise by 2050. Renewable sources, particularly wind and solar, are expected to experience the fastest growth, increasing from 9.6 mboe/d in 2023 to 52.4 mboe/d in 2050—a gain of almost 43 mboe/d. Natural gas is projected to see the second-largest growth, adding 20.5 mboe/d over the period, while oil demand is anticipated to grow by 16.7 mboe/d.
Other energy sources, including nuclear, biomass, and hydro, will also contribute to the demand increase. However, stringent global energy policies are expected to reduce coal demand by nearly 29 mboe/d by 2050.
Oil and Gas Remain Dominant in the Energy Mix
Despite the rise of renewables, oil and gas will continue to play a major role in global energy supply, maintaining a combined share of over 53 percent through 2050. Oil will hold the largest share at 29.3 percent, while natural gas will account for 24 percent. This indicates that while the energy mix is evolving, fossil fuels will remain central to global energy consumption over the coming decades.
OPEC’s annual World Oil Outlook report, unveiled at the Rio Oil & Gas fair in Brazil, underscores the persistent reliance on fossil fuels despite worldwide efforts to transition to renewable energy. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais emphasized Brazil’s growing significance in the global energy landscape, not just in oil but across all energy sectors.
While renewable energy is set to account for 60 percent of future demand growth, oil is expected to maintain a dominant position, comprising 29.3 percent of the energy matrix by 2050 — the highest share on record. OPEC’s forecast suggests that fossil fuels, including both oil and gas, will continue to represent over half of the global energy supply through mid-century.
This report signals that the global shift towards renewable energy, although accelerating, may not be enough to reduce dependency on oil in the coming decades. For oil alone, investment requirements out to 2050 total $17.4 trillion.
Baburajan Kizhakedath