Greentech Lead America: It will be a make-or-break year for alternative fuel developers as leaders race to show real revenue in order to cement their place in the industry, says Lux Research. Laggards will be caught between a rock and a hard place as government support has become unpredictable and private investment dollars are fast drying up.
“Real revenue is the meme of 2013. With several expensive next-generation plants expected to come online, the outlook is poised to dramatically change for budding fuel developers and major corporations alike,” said Andrew Soare, Lux Research analyst and the lead author of the report titled, “Leading Alternative Fuel Developers Race to Real Revenue in 2013.”
“For this industry to actually move the needle on the fuel mix, it needs revenue – or else plants number two, three, and beyond will never materialize,” he added.
Lux Research positioned alternative fuel technology developers on the Lux Innovation Grid based on their Technical Value and Business Execution – companies that are strong on both axes reach the “Dominant” quadrant. They also assessed each company’s maturity, and provided an overall Lux Take.
Among their findings:
Momentum, maturity exist in bioprocessing. Of the 30 bioprocessing companies analyzed, 13 are Dominant, with Amyris, Gevo, Solazyme, and POET in the top tier. All have high momentum and maturity, and are in the process of ramping up commercial facilities.
Many algae companies face dim prospects. Of the 29 algae companies in the study, a whopping 23 are in the Long Shots quardrant, with low scores on both Technical Value and Business Execution. Only one, Algae.Tec, barely crossed the threshold to be classified as Dominant.
Beta Renewables leads in pre-treatment. The biomass-to-sugars space features eight Dominant companies: Dyadic, Codexis, Novozymes, Beta Renewables, Renmatix, Blue Fire Renewables, REAC Fuel and Virdia. Beta Renewables and partner/investor Novozymes are scaling an initial commercial facility in Italy and have a loan guarantee for another in North America.
Lux Research