The global energy system is entering a major transformation phase driven by rising geopolitical tensions, volatile fossil fuel markets, accelerating electricity demand, and the urgent need to meet climate targets, according to a new report from International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
In its latest report, Transitioning away from fossil fuels: A roadmap based on renewables, electrification and grid enhancement, released in collaboration with the Brazilian COP30 Presidency ahead of the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, IRENA said the current global energy system is structurally incapable of achieving the 1.5°C climate target without a rapid transition toward electrification and renewable energy.
The report stressed that the global targets agreed at COP28 – tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 – remain essential but are no longer sufficient on their own to deliver the required energy transition.
IRENA’s revised 1.5°C scenario in its upcoming World Energy Transition Outlook projects electricity’s share in global final energy consumption will rise sharply from 23 percent today to 35 percent by 2035 and exceed 50 percent by 2050. Most of this growing electricity demand is expected to be supplied by renewable energy sources.
At the same time, fossil fuels are forecast to decline dramatically across the global economy. Fossil fuels currently account for about 80 percent of energy consumption worldwide, but IRENA expects this figure to fall to 50 percent by 2035 and to 20 percent or lower by 2050.
Francesco La Camera, Director-General of International Renewable Energy Agency, said the global energy transition now requires far more than renewable deployment targets.
“The world must adapt to a new energy reality,” Francesco La Camera said. “Beyond the goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency lies the wider challenge of transforming entire energy systems and reducing fossil fuel use across supply and demand. Electrification and fossil fuel phase-out are inseparable and must advance together.”
The IRENA report highlighted that electrification is becoming the central driver behind the decline of fossil fuels across transportation, industrial operations, buildings, and digital infrastructure. The report warned that transitioning away from fossil fuels will require a complete restructuring of global energy infrastructure and investment priorities.
One of the largest bottlenecks identified by IRENA is inadequate grid infrastructure. Around 2,500 gigawatts of wind and solar power projects worldwide are currently waiting for grid connections, slowing the pace of renewable deployment.
To address this challenge, IRENA estimates that annual global grid investment must more than double from approximately $0.5 trillion invested in 2025 to around $1.2 trillion per year on average.
The report also called for significant investment in energy storage, system flexibility, hydrogen infrastructure, EV charging networks, building retrofits, electric heating and cooling systems, and industrial electrification technologies.
IRENA noted that electrification supported by renewable energy delivers multiple benefits beyond climate mitigation. These include improved energy security through reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels, lower electricity prices for households and industries, stronger industrial competitiveness, and the creation of new innovation-driven value chains.
The report further emphasized the need for faster permitting processes, expanded transmission infrastructure, and stronger international cooperation to accelerate deployment timelines before 2035 and 2050 targets become unattainable.
At COP28, the UAE Consensus and the First Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement formally recognized the need to transition away from fossil fuels while supporting global renewable energy expansion and energy efficiency improvements. The Brazilian COP30 Presidency has since launched the TAFF roadmap – Transition Away From Fossil Fuels – with support from International Renewable Energy Agency to align climate, energy security, and economic development objectives.
IRENA said it will continue supporting countries through policy analysis, partnerships, and implementation support as preparations continue toward COP31 in Antalya.
BABURAJAN KIZHAKEDATH
