The installed base of smart electricity meters in Latin America will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20.5 percent from 14.0 million in 2023 to 42.9 million in 2029, Berg Insight forecasts.
Key countries in Latin America are Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay
New installations of smart electricity meters in Latin America will be driven by deployments in Brazil and Mexico, while countries such as Colombia, Ecuador and Peru are expected to grow their share of annual shipment volumes throughout the forecast period.
Colombia and Peru for example, are expected to increase their share of annual smart electricity meter shipment volumes in the region from 5.9 percent in 2023 to 16.5 percent in 2029.
In Brazil, several utilities such as Cemig, Copel and Enel have invested significantly in the deployment of AMI – particularly Enel’s subsidiary in Sao Paulo which aims to install more than 8.8 million smart meters by 2030.
Berg Insight projects that over 31.4 million new smart electricity meters will be installed in Latin America during 2023–2029. Annual shipment volumes are forecasted to grow from 2.6 million in 2023 to nearly 6.7 million in 2029. The smart meter penetration rate across Latin America is forecasted to reach 18.4 percent in 2029 – up from 6.5 percent in 2023.
The annual demand for electricity meters in Latin America ranges from 20 to 30 million units, out of which Brazil and Mexico together account for over 65 percent. With the exception of Costa Rica and Uruguay, Latin America has not yet seen the implementation of nationwide smart metering projects.
The rollout of smart electricity meters in Costa Rica progresses steadily and the country reached a milestone during 2022 when the smart meter penetration rate surpassed 50 percent. The largest DSO group in Costa Rica Grupo ICE announced that it aims to reach 100 percent smart meter coverage by 2035.
In Uruguay, the nationwide rollout by the state-owned utility is in its end-phase and the country is expected to become the first Latin American country to reach full smart metering coverage in 2024.
Brazil is a highly interesting market for smart metering solution vendors with its 95 million electricity users and low penetration rate of smart meters – 5.6 percent in 2023.
Utilities in the country are increasingly investing in the technology and the country is forecasted to account for nearly 50 percent of the shipped smart electricity meters in Latin America during the forecast period.
The penetration rate of smart electricity meters in Mexico is forecasted to increase from around 8.5 percent in 2023 to nearly 22.0 percent in 2029.
Installed base of smart electricity meters in Argentina will almost quadruple from more than 0.25 million to slightly over 1.0 million over the forecast period.
Smart metering deployments in neighbouring Chile peaked in 2018–2019 and have since decreased, mainly due to regulatory ambiguity. There is however potential for a more positive market development if the regulatory environment in the country improves.
In Colombia, the installed base of smart meters is forecasted to increase – driven by deployments by the largest utility group Grupo EPM and Enel Colombia. Annual shipment volumes in Colombia will grow at an impressive CAGR of 35.4 percent during the forecast period.
Peru is a more nascent market in comparison to its neighbour Colombia and smart meter shipment volumes are anticipated to increase after 2024, which is when the country is set to propose technical standards and cost-benefit methodology for future AMI deployments.
In Ecuador, investments in smart metering are expected to increase throughout the forecast period and the number of installed smart meters will grow from 170,000 units in 2023 to more than 620,000 units in 2029.
The two only landlocked countries in South America – Bolivia and Paraguay – are also two of the least mature smart metering markets in Latin America. These two markets will grow modestly and continue to be largely in the smart metering pilot phase throughout the forecast period.
Central American country Honduras has long deployed smart meters and ended 2023 with an installed base north of 0.5 million. Honduras continues to suffer from very high non-technical electricity losses at above 30 percent and the deployment of smart meters has been used as a tool to lower losses, but to no avail so far.
Central American countries El Salvador, Guatemala and Panama, which all have relatively low installed bases of smart meters, will slowly increase the scope and scale of smart meter deployments. The cumulative annual shipment volumes from El Salvador, Guatemala and Panama are forecasted to reach more than 82,000 units in 2029 – up from around 10,000 units in 2023.