OPEC has revised its forecast for global oil demand, cutting its growth estimate for 2024. In a report released on Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it now expects global oil demand to increase by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from the previous forecast of 2.11 million bpd. This marks the second consecutive downgrade by OPEC, reflecting current market data and future economic trends.
A significant factor in this revision is the reduced demand growth from China, the world’s second-largest economy. OPEC lowered its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth to 650,000 bpd from 700,000 bpd, attributing the decrease to economic challenges and China’s transition towards cleaner energy sources, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks, Reuters news report said.
OPEC+ — the alliance between OPEC members and other oil-producing nations like Russia — faces increasing challenges in balancing the market amid fluctuating prices. Just last week, OPEC+ delayed plans to increase oil production after prices dropped to their lowest in 2024. Brent crude fell further after the report, trading below $71 per barrel, the lowest since March 2023.
While OPEC remains at the higher end of industry forecasts, the broader uncertainty around China’s demand and the global shift to cleaner energy continue to impact predictions. OPEC has also trimmed its 2025 growth outlook to 1.74 million bpd, down from 1.78 million bpd.
As the world accelerates its transition to renewable energy, the demand for fossil fuels continues to face new pressures, especially from major economies like China, which are increasingly adopting green technologies.