The global wind energy industry has shared its response to the International Energy Agency’s (IRA) Renewables 2023, a comprehensive analysis.
The IEA report said global renewable capacity is forecast to reach 7 300 GW by 2028. This growth trajectory would see global capacity increase to 2.5 times its current level by 2030, falling short of the tripling goal. Governments can close the gap to reach over 11 000 GW by 2030 by overcoming current challenges and implementing existing policies more quickly.
IEA said the wind forecast is less optimistic outside of China. The global wind industry, especially in Europe and North America is facing challenges due to a combination of ongoing supply chain disruptions, higher costs and long permitting timelines. As a result of these challenges, the forecast for onshore wind outside of China has been revised downwards as overall project development has been slower than expected, IEA said.
Offshore wind has been hit hardest by the new macroeconomic environment, with its expansion through 2028 revised down by 15 percent outside China. The challenges facing the industry particularly affect offshore wind, with investment costs today more than 20 percent higher than only a few years ago.
In 2023, developers have cancelled or postponed 15 GW of offshore wind projects in the United States and the United Kingdom. For some developers, pricing for previously awarded capacity does not reflect the increased costs facing project development today, which reduces project bankability, IEA said in its report.
Response from Wind Energy Industry
Ben Backwell, CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council, emphasized the critical importance of accelerating the growth of renewable energy to meet the COP28 goal of tripling renewable energy by 2030 in the battle against climate change.
Backwell highlighted positive indicators such as the increasing dominance of renewables over coal, the cost competitiveness of wind energy, and significant wind installations in China. However, he stressed the need for governments worldwide to adopt proactive policies conducive to the energy transition.
Backwell urged policymakers to collaborate closely with the wind industry, particularly in offshore wind, to create attractive investment environments, expedite permitting procedures, ensure sustainable supply chains, and develop comprehensive grid integration plans.
Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance, applauded the record-breaking growth of renewable energy in 2023 but called attention to the substantial work required to establish this trajectory as the new norm. Douglas underscored a notable gap between countries’ ambitions and actual delivery, emphasizing that the full potential of renewable energy is realized in only a few markets.
He called on all governments to promptly reassess their national renewable energy targets and policy frameworks to bridge this gap and fulfill the COP28 agreement to triple global renewables by 2030.
Douglas also stressed the need for accessible low-cost financing, expedited project permitting, and the development of robust and diverse supply chains to achieve the ambitious tripling target and ensure equitable distribution of renewable energy benefits, especially in the face of the challenging macroeconomic environment affecting developing countries.