Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation are projected to increase by more than 1 percent in 2026 after remaining broadly flat in 2025, as higher natural gas prices, fuel switching to coal, and weather-related factors offset gains from renewable energy, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). While emissions are expected to reach a new record high this year, they are forecast to plateau in 2027 as renewable energy, nuclear power and natural gas increasingly replace coal in the global electricity mix.
The IEA said the Middle East energy crisis disrupted natural gas supplies and pushed up LNG prices during the first half of 2026, encouraging several countries to switch from gas-fired to coal-fired electricity generation. Weather conditions also increased reliance on coal- and oil-fired power generation. As a result, emissions are expected to rise across most regions in 2026, particularly in emerging and developing economies, with increases in China, India, Southeast Asia, Central and South America, Africa, and Eurasia only partly offset by significant declines in Europe and the United States.
China is expected to record the largest increase in absolute power-sector emissions, with emissions rising by around 2 percent in 2026 because of stronger electricity demand and lower-than-expected wind generation. Southeast Asia is forecast to post average annual emissions growth of 6 percent during 2026-2027 as fossil-fuel generation continues meeting rising electricity demand. In India, power-sector CO2 emissions are projected to rebound by close to 3 percent in 2026 after declining 3.5 percent in 2025, followed by another 1.5 percent increase in 2027 as coal-fired generation expands to support rapid electricity demand growth. Meanwhile, emissions from electricity generation in the United States are expected to decline 3 percent in 2026 before remaining broadly unchanged in 2027. The European Union is forecast to achieve the largest reduction, with emissions falling 5 percent in 2026 and another 16 percent in 2027, leaving power-sector emissions at less than half their 2017 level.
Despite the increase in total emissions, the carbon intensity of global electricity generation is expected to continue improving as low-emission electricity sources expand. Global emissions intensity is forecast to decline by an average 3 percent annually, falling from 435 g CO2/kWh in 2025 to 410 g CO2/kWh by 2027. The European Union is expected to lead this transition with an average annual reduction of around 12 percent, reducing emissions intensity from 175 g CO2/kWh to 135 g CO2/kWh over the same period. China’s emissions intensity is forecast to decline 4 percent annually from 535 g CO2/kWh in 2025 to 495 g CO2/kWh by 2027, while India is expected to achieve a similar annual reduction. The United States is projected to reduce electricity emissions intensity by more than 4 percent annually between 2025 and 2027 after remaining flat in 2025.
BABURAJAN KIZHAKEDATH
