The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected a slight decline in U.S. natural gas production in 2024, while domestic demand for gas will reach a record high.
In its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA predicts that dry gas production will fall from a 2023 record of 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 103.5 bcfd in 2024, as several producers reduce drilling due to low spot gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark.
Despite this dip, output is expected to rebound to 104.6 bcfd in 2025. Meanwhile, gas consumption in the U.S. is forecasted to rise from 89.1 bcfd in 2023 to 90.1 bcfd in 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of demand growth. This trend is driven by increased usage across industries and power generation.
Additionally, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are forecast to grow from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2023 to 12.1 bcfd in 2024, reaching 13.8 bcfd in 2025.
As natural gas and renewable energy sources increasingly replace coal, U.S. coal production is set to drop from 577.5 million short tons in 2023 to 510.0 million tons in 2024, its lowest level since 1964. Coal output is forecast to fall further to 484.6 million tons in 2025, approaching levels last seen in the early 1960s.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels are also expected to decrease slightly in 2024 to 4.777 billion metric tons, compared to 4.791 billion metric tons in 2023, primarily due to reduced coal and oil consumption. However, emissions are projected to rise again in 2025 to 4.794 billion metric tons as petroleum and coal use increase. These projections come after the U.S. experienced its lowest carbon emissions in decades during 2020, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on energy demand.