Global solar installations are expected to reach approximately 54.5 GW in 2015, compared to about 47.5 GW in 2014, says Mercom solar market intelligence report.
The prediction comes at a time when there is uncertainty surrounding the solar sector in two major markets – China and Japan, Mercom said in the latest report.
The report comes on the wake of the new ruling by the U.S. Department of Commerce on imposing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy rates on crystalline silicon imports from China and Taiwan in a bid to close a loophole which allowed Chinese manufacturers to circumvent duties imposed in 2012.
China has set a target of 13 GW in 2015 with a caveat that it could go up if installations go down in 2014.
Japan is forecasted to be the second largest solar market in 2014 and 2015, Mercom said. However, Japan was also hit by some roadblocks that could affect its installation totals between 2014 and 2015. PV installation in the first half of 2014 was about 4 GW. There are indications that Japan solar projects totaling 17.5 GW may be cancelled.
Meanwhile solar power capacity in Scotland has risen by about a third in the past year. The capacity of these systems has reached 140 MW, an increase of 32 percent from 106 MW last year.
However, solar power capacity is still small compared to wind energy, which has almost 40 times the installed capacity.
The U.S. is forecast to install about 9 GW in 2015, compared to 6.4 GW in 2014. Total capacity is expected to reach 54.5 GW in 2015.
Germany continues to experience slowdown. In October 2014, Germany installed 75 MW, the lowest month of installation in four years. At the current pace, PV installations in Germany will struggle to cross 2 GW in 2014.
With 2014 installations projected to be under the targeted 2.4 GW, degression rate will be cut in half from 0.5 to 0.25 percent, which may give some life to the solar sector in 2015, Mercom says.
Mercom’s U.K. forecast remains unchanged for 2014 the estimate for 2015 is to be in the similar range, the agency says. U.K. PV installations are primarily driven by Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROC) for >5 MW projects.
Rajani Baburajan