A new analysis by Ember underscores how scaling up renewable energy could help Mexico avoid $1.6 billion in annual gas import costs from the United States and generate over 434,000 new jobs by 2030.
Strategic Energy Shift Amid Rising Demand
Mexico is currently heavily dependent on U.S. natural gas imports, with 54 percent of its electricity in 2024 generated from imported gas. This dependency places the country in a vulnerable position, both economically and geopolitically. With electricity demand expected to grow 15 percent by 2030, maintaining the current energy mix would exacerbate this vulnerability, Wilmar Suarez, Latin America Analyst, Ember, said.
However, Ember’s analysis reveals that achieving the government’s clean electricity target of 45 percent by 2030 could reduce gas-fired generation by 20 percent — from 204 TWh in 2024 to 163 TWh in 2030 — while still meeting growing energy needs. This transition could cut U.S. gas imports by 384 billion cubic feet in 2030 alone, bringing both fiscal savings and greater energy resilience.
High Ambition, High Rewards
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s October 2024 commitment to 45 percent clean electricity marked a notable policy shift. According to Ember, this target is not only achievable but far more beneficial than the lower 36 percent scenario also being considered. The higher target delivers:
Ten times more fuel cost savings
Nearly twice as many jobs (434,000 vs. fewer than 220,000)
Significant emissions reductions and improved air quality
To reach this goal, Mexico would need to install 36 GW of solar and 10 GW of onshore wind power by 2030. This build-out could generate 419,000 jobs during construction and an additional 15,000 permanent roles in operation and maintenance—representing a significant economic boost.
Lessons from Regional Neighbors
The report also draws attention to Latin American peers like Brazil and Uruguay, which have successfully integrated high levels of renewables into their grids through proactive government policies and efficient permitting processes. These countries serve as compelling case studies for Mexico as it attempts to navigate regulatory and infrastructural hurdles.
Broader Implications
Beyond economics, the shift to renewables carries profound implications for Mexico’s national security and climate commitments. Reducing reliance on a foreign energy source insulates the country from international price shocks and supply disruptions. At the same time, greater adoption of clean energy can help Mexico align with global emissions reduction targets and boost its standing in international climate diplomacy.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Mexican Energy Policy
The findings from Ember make a strong case for urgent and ambitious action. The proposed 45 percent clean electricity target offers Mexico an opportunity to reshape its energy landscape — cutting financial waste, securing its power supply, and investing in a sustainable jobs engine for the future.
The challenge now lies in translating policy into action. That will require coordinated efforts across federal and state governments, streamlined regulatory pathways, and robust investment frameworks. With the right commitment, Mexico can position itself as a regional leader in the clean energy transition.
GreentechLead.com News Desk