India is poised to become a key player in global energy markets with a distinct growth path marked by lower energy intensity, a diverse energy mix, and increased commodity imports.
Unlike China’s energy-intensive expansion in the early 2000s, India’s growth is expected to be more balanced, emphasizing high-value manufacturing and renewable energy. While energy demand will rise, India’s industrial sector is less energy-intensive and better positioned to adopt efficient, low-carbon technologies. This trajectory could accelerate India’s transition to a low-carbon economy, potentially achieving net-zero emissions ahead of its 2070 target.
By 2033, under Wood Mackenzie’s high-growth scenario, India’s economy is projected to reach nearly $9 trillion, with crude steel and cement production remaining only about one-third of China’s 2011 levels.
A growing share of renewables and the adoption of electric vehicles will further lower energy intensity. Despite coal demand nearly doubling to 2.2 billion tonnes and power demand surging to 4,000 TWh, increased efficiency measures will moderate overall energy intensity.
India’s demand growth is unlikely to trigger significant energy price surges. Oil demand could rise to 8.2 million barrels per day, increasing Brent prices by a modest $1 to $3 per barrel, while an additional 10 Mtpa of LNG demand will be absorbed by global supply growth. Domestic thermal coal production may reach 1,800 Mt, though imports of around 200 Mt will still be necessary, with seaborne coal prices rising only slightly.
While India’s CO2 emissions will rise initially due to coal expansion, investments in low-carbon supply chains for renewables, electric vehicles, and critical minerals could enable faster decarbonization post-2030s.
India’s energy transition will require $600 billion in power sector investments over the next decade, creating significant opportunities for global energy producers and supply chains. With strategic policies promoting renewables and public-private partnerships, India can reduce its reliance on commodity imports post-2035, improving its economic resilience and sustainability.
GreentechLead.com News Desk