Greentech Lead America: Photovoltaic R&D will
generate next-generation technologies that will bring down cost per watt and
restore profit margins to low double-digits by 2014.
Lux Research said that innovations in materials and cell
designs will help stabilize module prices at $0.90/W, while cost of goods sold
will fall on account of improved cell efficiencies, cheaper processes and
thinner wafers.
“Emerging PV technologies that are easy to scale,
result in module efficiency gains, and reduced capital and materials costs will
be game-changers for struggling module makers,” said Fatima Toor, Lux
Research Analyst and the lead author of the report.
Direct solidification technology is a top target on the
Disruptive PV Technology Grid with a market size of up to $600 million. 1366
Technologies is the clear leader and expected to be the first to reach
commercialization by 2013.
Anti-reflective and light-trapping coatings are
second-tier technologies but among the top targets with a market size of over
$600 million. They provide cost-effective alternatives for efficiency gains.
Natcore is the leader in this space with likely commercialization this year.
Copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) cell technology will
cannibalize thin-film copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) market share
through use of cheaper materials, eliminating the use of indium and gallium.
Epitaxial Si (epi-Si) technology, which is thin monocrystalline silicon, has
the potential to replace amorphous silicon (a-Si) infrastructure and reach
higher efficiencies than a-Si modules.