Russian gas imports to the EU increased by 18 percent in 2024, despite the bloc’s commitment to phasing out Russian energy by 2027.
This rise was largely driven by increased imports into Italy, Czechia, and France. Notably, this growth in imports occurred despite overall gas demand in the EU remaining unchanged in 2024, an analysis by Ember reveals.
At the same time, the EU is planning a 54 percent expansion of its LNG import capacity as Member States seek alternative foreign suppliers.
However, with demand projected to stay flat until 2030, this expansion risks leading to a significant overbuild, with fossil gas supply projected to exceed demand by 26 percent in 2030. The scale of this overinvestment — 131 bcm — is comparable to the combined annual gas demand of Germany, France, and Poland.
Ember analyst Dr. Pawel Czyzak criticized the EU’s imports of Russian gas, calling it a “scandal.” He argued that instead of investing in sustainable alternatives such as renewable energy and efficiency improvements, Member States are pouring money into expensive LNG infrastructure that may not even be utilized.
The analysis also highlights the continued volatility of gas prices and the risks posed to energy security. In 2024, EU gas prices rose by 59 percent, continuing a trend of price instability that began after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the European gas price benchmark is now roughly double its pre-crisis levels heading into 2025.
Additionally, securing supply from foreign sources outside of Russia has become increasingly uncertain due to geopolitical tensions. The US, for instance, is ramping up LNG export capacity, but growing political and economic instability raises concerns about long-term reliability.
While the EU has explored options such as financing foreign LNG infrastructure and signing long-term contracts to reduce dependence on Russian gas, such measures could inadvertently deepen the bloc’s reliance on fossil fuels and expose it to further risks from potentially unreliable suppliers.
Despite the European Commission’s pledge to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027, there is still no legally binding target or publicly released plan for the phase-out. Loopholes in current regulations allow Member States to continue importing Russian gas indirectly, including through shadow vessels and third-party purchases.
Furthermore, the push to secure alternative gas supplies is at odds with the EU’s stated energy security and affordability goals. The recent Action Plan for Affordable Energy emphasized the need to reduce gas dependence, yet current policies risk driving up long-term costs for both households and industry.
Dr. Pawel Czyzak warned that the EU’s inconsistent approach is undermining its long-term objectives. He criticized proposals such as subsidizing imported gas or reopening the Nord Stream pipeline, arguing that such short-term measures contradict the EU’s broader energy transition strategy.
Isaac Levi, Team Lead at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), echoed these concerns, urging the EU to implement legally binding measures to ensure a complete phase-out of Russian gas imports.
Isaac Levi stressed that without concrete policies — such as an LNG price cap, a ban on spot market purchases, and strict enforcement of the 2027 phase-out deadline — the EU risks further entrenching its dependence on Russian gas in 2025. This reliance, he argued, not only exposes European consumers to continued price volatility and energy blackmail but also undermines the EU’s support for Ukraine by indirectly funding the Kremlin’s war efforts.
Baburajan Kizhakedath