Greentech Lead Asia: Even though demand for electric vehicles
lags behind government’s ambitious projections, Chinese lithium-ion battery
market will nearly double to $9.2 billion in 2016. The battery volumes will
grow to reach 44.3 GWh with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.2
percent. The revenues from the battery market were $5.0 billion in 2011, and
this will grow at a slower rate of 12.8 percent as average selling price dips
20 percent to $207 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2016.
According to a new research report by Lux Research, new
applications like electric bikes drive 18 percent annual growth in Chinese
lithium-ion battery market. The report finds that about 57 percent of the 32
million electric bikes produced in China in 2016 will use lithium-ion
batteries, compared with a mere 3 percent in 2011. The consumer
electronics market will lead the Li-ion battery market over the forecasted
period.
“The consumer electronics market continues to
dominate the Li-ion battery market but emerging applications are where the hype
is and where policy is being focused. The markets for electric bikes and
electric vehicles are anticipated to grow fast in a few years but less than
100,000 new-energy vehicles will be sold in 2016, a far cry from the
seven-digit target that has battery developers salivating,” said Zhuo Zhang,
Lux Research Associate and the lead author of the report.
The report forecasts that Telecom base stations in China
are set to shift from lead-acid batteries to lithium-ion batteries. The 714,000
base stations will replace all lead acid batteries and this will create a $14
billion opportunity.
The report also forecasts that foreign
venture-capital-backed start-ups will become Chinese companies’ acquisition
targets as they struggle to achieve technological breakthroughs.