A special report from the UN warns of eight critical global shifts that are accelerating a triple planetary crisis of climate change, nature loss, pollution, and waste.
“The rapid rate of change, uncertainty, and technological developments we’re seeing, against a backdrop of geopolitical turbulence, means any country can be thrown off course more easily and more often,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
The Global Foresight Report, released by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Science Council (ISC), identified several shifts, including humanity’s degradation of the natural world, rapid technological advancements like AI, competition for natural resources, widening inequalities, and declining trust in institutions. Together, these factors are creating a polycrisis where global crises amplify and synchronize, significantly impacting human and planetary wellbeing.
Signals of Change
In addition to the eight shifts, the report highlights 18 signals of change. These signals, identified through regional and stakeholder consultations, offer insights into potential disruptions that the world must prepare for. Key signals include:
Growing Demand for Critical Elements: The increasing demand for rare earth elements, minerals, and metals is driving calls for deep sea and space mining, posing threats to nature, biodiversity, and potentially escalating pollution, waste, and conflicts.
Thawing Permafrost: Warming climates are thawing permafrost, releasing ancient organisms that could be pathogenic, as evidenced by an anthrax outbreak in Russia’s Siberia region.
Rise of Armed Conflict and Violence: Armed conflicts and forced displacement are creating significant human health and environmental impacts.
Importance of Foresight
Despite these emerging crises, the report emphasizes the importance of adopting better foresight tools to anticipate future disruptions. “Foresight provides a useful set of tools to step outside of short-termism to help identify future opportunities and risks, provided that it is done in a truly pluralistic manner,” said Peter Gluckman, President of the ISC.
To ensure a pluralistic approach, the report recommends adopting a new social contract that includes a diverse range of stakeholders, such as indigenous peoples and young people, and rethinking measures of progress beyond GDP.
“As the impacts of multiple crises intensify, now is the time to get ahead of the curve and protect ourselves from emerging challenges,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “By monitoring signals of change and using the foresight approach, the world can avoid repeating mistakes of the past and focus on solutions that can withstand future disruption.”