Renewable energy is playing a larger role in meeting record U.S. electricity demand, with solar emerging as the fastest-growing major generation source in the EIA’s September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
EIA’s September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) indicates U.S. renewable electricity generation at 1,141.4 BkWh in 2026, up from 1,039.7 BkWh in 2025, before climbing to 1,230.8 BkWh in 2027. This represents growth of nearly 10 percent in 2026 and another 8 percent in 2027.
Solar Energy Leads US Renewable Growth
Solar is expected to deliver the strongest growth. EIA forecasts U.S. solar generation will increase 21 percent in 2026 and another 18 percent in 2027. Solar’s share of total U.S. electricity generation rises from 7 percent in 2025 to 8 percent in 2026 and 9 percent in 2027.
Total solar generation, including utility-scale and small-scale resources, is forecast to rise from 293.5 BkWh in 2025 to 353.7 BkWh in 2026 and 417.9 BkWh in 2027. That means U.S. solar output could expand by more than 42 percent in just two years.
Utility-scale solar photovoltaic capacity is projected to increase from 150.1 GW at the end of 2025 to 179.2 GW in 2026 and 220.1 GW in 2027. This represents almost 70 GW of additional capacity over two years. Small-scale solar capacity is also forecast to rise from 59.5 GW in 2025 to 65.8 GW in 2026 and 72 GW in 2027.
Texas and the central U.S. are major growth markets. EIA expects additional solar generation of 18 BkWh in ERCOT and 13 BkWh in MISO during 2026, followed by another 20 BkWh and 11 BkWh, respectively, in 2027.
Wind Generation Approaches 523 BkWh
Wind power is growing more moderately than solar but remains a substantially larger electricity source. EIA forecasts wind generation will increase 7 percent in 2026 and 5 percent in 2027.
Annual wind generation is projected to increase from 464.1 BkWh in 2025 to 496.4 BkWh in 2026 and 522.7 BkWh in 2027. Wind’s share of U.S. electricity generation remains at about 11 percent in 2026 before increasing to 12 percent in 2027.
Wind generating capacity is forecast to expand from 158.9 GW in 2025 to 170.3 GW in 2026 and 179 GW in 2027, adding about 20 GW over two years.
Renewable Growth Helps Displace Coal
The solar and wind expansion comes as U.S. electricity consumption reaches record levels. Electricity sales are expected to reach 4,135 BkWh in 2026 and 4,211 BkWh in 2027, driven particularly by data centers and manufacturing.
Renewables are capturing a growing portion of this incremental requirement. At the same time, EIA expects coal-fired generation to decline 8 percent in 2026 and another 6 percent in 2027. Natural gas generation, however, is forecast to increase 2 percent in 2026 and 1 percent in 2027, indicating that gas will continue to support rising electricity demand alongside renewable additions.
The EIA report said renewable transportation energy consumption is forecast to increase from 1.674 quadrillion Btu in 2025 to 1.815 quadrillion Btu in 2026 and 2.044 quadrillion Btu in 2027. Biodiesel, renewable diesel and other renewable transportation fuels rise particularly strongly, from 0.538 quadrillion Btu in 2025 to 0.680 quadrillion Btu in 2026 and 0.899 quadrillion Btu in 2027.
SHAFANA FAZAL
