Greentech Lead America: High-concentrating photovoltaics
(HCPV) market will grow to 697 MW in 2017, creating a system market worth $1.6
billion and a module market worth $700 million, reaching a system price of
$2.33/W. the market will register a 31 percent compound annual growth rate.
According to a Lux Research report, emerging markets with high solar resources
will drive this growth.
“HCPV has had very little success installing
commercial systems to date. However, as markets shift due to subsidy cuts from
distributed installations in low-DNI (direct normal irradiance) environments
such as Germany, to large installations in high-DNI environments such as India,
expect HCPV to grow at a faster rate than competing technologies,” said Ed
Cahill, Lux Research associate.
The research finds that the HCPV costs are coming down.
HCPV systems will turn cost competitive with single-axis-tracked mc-Si
(multi-crystalline silicon) in 2017, closing a 33 percent and 20 percent gap
with fixed and tracked mc-Si systems, respectively. It also will gain cost
parity with mc-Si for high-DNI, utility-scale projects in 2018. The cuts will
come through lower shipping and labor costs, besides economies of scale.
The report forecasts that Well-funded companies that
expand intelligently will drive the HCPV market. The race to manufacture the
most efficient solar cell is heating up. A steady roadmap to 45 percent
efficiency in five years and 50 percent efficiency in 10 years is feasible.