Concentrated solar power (CSP) market will witness a downfall from 2.45 GW in 2013 to 2.0 GW in 2018 due to the crash of photovoltaic module prices, says a new report from Lux Research.
CSP plants rely on the method of focusing sun’s rays to produce intense heat, which is then used to run a steam turbine or drive a thermo chemical reaction.
During 2010 and 2011 CSP plants had attracted huge investments from public and private partners. Despite the current downturn, Lux Research expects that CSP technology has the potential to bounce back and beat multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE).
Ed Cahill, Lux Research associate and the lead author of the report titled, “Turning Up the Heat on Advanced Concentrating Solar Components,” says the industry can still bring the technology back to the forefront for utility-sclae, stand-alone power applications.
According to Cahill, advanced components and thermal energy storage that enable higher operating temperatures could allow CSP to beat PV systems on LCOE by 6 percent to 33 percent in some of the sunniest areas.
Thermal energy storage (TES) is among the largest portions of the system cost stack. Today’s CSP system costs are 37 percent to 60 percent higher than mc-Si without TES – and 300 percent to 600 percent higher with 14 hours of TES. Storage, according to Lux Research, will remain the primary target for advanced system components.
Large projects will rely on advanced power towers. Lux Research expects supercritical steam systems to become popular by 2020. Other innovations on cards include Air Brayton and supercritical CO2systems that can beat mc-Si’s LCOE by 31 percent and 33 percent.
Small projects will rather rely on Fresnel reflector systems. Linear Fresnel reflectors with molten salt heat transfer fluid can undercut mc-Si’s LCOE by 6 percent and have the most potential to dominate smaller CSP projects and alternative applications like integrated solar combined cycle (ISCC), industrial heat, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and water purification applications, Lux Research said.