By Greentech Lead Team: The production of
biologically-based fuels will increase from $82.7 billion to $185.3 billion by
2021, but will fall short of demand. The demand will be in the 71.8 billion
gallons per year (BGPY) area whereas production will fall short of that by
several billion gallons.
In 2021 total fuel usage will increase to about 375 BGPY for
gasoline, 427 BGPY for diesel in ground transportation, and 200 BGPY for
aviation globally. The biggest hurdles will be feedstocks for the fuels and the
resulting shift towards more advanced technologies such as cellulosic
Pike estimates that the production is expected to significantly
outpace demand in some markets (e.g., Brazil) and fall short in others (e.g.,
China), increasing opportunities for global trade in ethanol and biodiesel.
The Americas to account for 71 percent of total global biofuels
production for most of the 2012-2021 period. Global production of ethanol will
reach 49.5 BGPY by 2021.
Commercial airlines and the US military continue to emerge as
key drivers of industry growth, signaling growing demand and attracting new
investment into the industry.
Increasing oil prices will drive increased interest in biofuels
and wash-out from “Food versus Fuel” and “Indirect Land Use Change” will
linger, shifting investor and policy focus from conventional to advanced
Advanced biofuels seek near-term revenue, continuing the trend
towards feedstock and end-product flexibility. Genetic modification and
feedstock optimization will improve outlook for non-food feedstock pathways,
enabling new geographic expansion and accelerated commercialization.
Number of off-take agreements with oil and chemical will
increase, confirming the trend towards strategic partnerships. Mandates
continue to integrate sustainability measures, setting benchmarks for market
access and dictating terms for accessing financing.