Africa is heading for a record year for solar energy, with 17 GW of new capacity expected in 2026, representing 45 percent growth and a third consecutive annual installation record. The expansion is increasingly being driven by distributed solar, rapidly growing emerging markets, battery storage and new financing models.
Global Solar Council – Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2026–2029 indicated that Africa could install more than 33 GW by 2029 and highlights the growing role of distributed solar.
The solar boom is spreading well beyond established markets. Thirty-six of Africa’s 54 countries are expected to achieve record solar installations in 2026, while 19 countries are projected to grow by more than 100 percent. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) leads with forecast growth of 544 percent, followed by Zimbabwe at 282 percent and Egypt at 176 percent.
Distributed Solar Accounts for 75% of New Capacity
Distributed solar has emerged as the most important structural driver of Africa’s renewable-energy expansion.
An estimated 75 percent of African solar capacity additions between 2023 and 2025 came from distributed installations, including systems deployed by households and businesses outside traditional utility-scale projects.
This shift is changing how new electricity supply is developed. Solar home systems, commercial installations and mini-grids can add capacity closer to consumers without waiting for large centralized power stations or extensive grid expansion.
17 GW of Solar Could Generate 23 TWh Annually
The 17 GW expected to be installed during 2026 could generate approximately 23 TWh of electricity annually, roughly equivalent to Africa’s average annual electricity-demand growth during the past decade.
In more than half of Africa’s 54 countries, additional solar generation expected in 2026 could exceed the historical pace of electricity-demand growth.
The impact will be particularly significant in smaller electricity markets.
Ten countries with a combined population of approximately 190 million people could see 2026 solar additions increase annual electricity generation by at least 10 percent.
Sierra Leone leads with an estimated 97 percent increase, followed by Togo at 24 percent, Somalia and Djibouti at 21 percent each, DRC and Comoros at 14 percent each, Namibia and Liberia at 12 percent each, Chad at 11 percent and Lesotho at 10 percent.
South Africa’s Solar Dominance Weakens as New Markets Grow
South Africa historically accounted for more than half of Africa’s solar imports, but its share is expected to decline to less than one-fifth of African installations in 2026.
Rather than simply indicating weakness in South Africa, the change highlights rapid geographical diversification as solar deployment expands across Central, East, West and North Africa.
Growth of 544 percent in DRC, 282 percent in Zimbabwe and 176 percent in Egypt demonstrates how emerging markets are becoming increasingly important to Africa’s solar investment landscape.
China Supplies 94% of Africa’s Solar Panels
Africa’s solar expansion remains heavily dependent on imported equipment, with approximately 94 percent of installed solar panels imported from China.
China’s massive manufacturing scale has provided African developers and consumers with access to competitively priced solar modules, helping accelerate deployment across the continent.
However, Africa is beginning to build its own solar manufacturing industry.
Solar-panel manufacturing capacity is forecast to quadruple to approximately 3.5 GW in 2026, supported by new factories in Egypt and Tanzania. South Africa is also pursuing a 1 GW solar manufacturing facility.
Battery Storage Emerges as Major Solar Investment Opportunity
Rapid growth in intermittent solar generation is creating greater demand for battery storage to shift electricity into evening hours and improve grid stability.
Egypt is emerging as a major solar-plus-storage market. Scatec is developing a project combining 1.95 GW of solar capacity with 3.9 GWh of battery storage, which is expected to generate approximately 6 TWh, or 6,000 GWh, of renewable electricity annually under a 25-year power purchase agreement.
The African Development Bank has committed $184.1 million toward a major solar and battery-storage development in Egypt.
The projects indicate that Africa’s renewable investment opportunity is expanding from standalone solar generation toward integrated solar-plus-storage infrastructure.
Sun King Plans 50 Million Solar Kits and 3.8 GW Expansion
Distributed energy is also attracting significant investment as companies target households and businesses without reliable grid electricity.
Sun King plans to deploy more than 50 million additional solar kits across Africa between 2026 and 2030, representing more than $5.6 billion of solar equipment and 3.8 GW of additional solar capacity.
The company aims to reach 200 million people.
Pay-as-you-go financing is an important part of this market because it enables customers to spread equipment costs over time rather than paying the entire price upfront.
Sun King, d.light, M-KOPA, Bboxx, Zola Electric, ENGIE Energy Access and Lumos are among companies competing in distributed and off-grid energy through combinations of solar equipment, batteries, appliances, consumer finance and digital payments.
At the utility scale, Scatec, AMEA Power and Infinity Power are among developers expanding renewable-energy portfolios, with competition increasingly centered on project financing, PPAs, execution and battery integration.
Africa Solar Data Remains a Major Challenge
The actual African solar market could be larger than official statistics indicate because distributed installations are often not fully captured.
Only three countries — South Africa, Tunisia and Tanzania — publish solar-capacity information quarterly or more frequently.
Official national solar-capacity information is available for only 36 of Africa’s 54 countries, and only 14 countries had 2025 data.
An alternative methodology using Chinese solar-panel exports indicates that approximately 73 percent of exported panels are typically installed within six months in markets used for calibration. At least 15 African countries also have solar registration and permitting systems at an advanced stage, with several already operating.
Better information will become increasingly important for planning electricity grids, storage, transmission and future generation requirements.
Africa Could Install More Than 33 GW of Solar by 2029
Africa’s solar opportunity now extends beyond PV modules into batteries, mini-grids, inverters, power electronics, digital payments, transmission, distribution, financing and local manufacturing.
The Global Solar Council expects Africa to install more than 33 GW of solar capacity by 2029, with distributed and utility-scale solar expanding simultaneously.
AfDB’s 2025 annual report indicates approval of $184 million for Scatec’s Egypt project involving roughly 1 GW solar and 100 MW/200 MWh battery storage.
However, financing costs, currency volatility, sovereign risk, weak utility finances, grid constraints and inadequate market data remain barriers to faster deployment. These challenges are simultaneously creating opportunities for battery storage, grid modernization, financing platforms, digital metering and energy-data technologies.
Africa Solar Market Enters a New Growth Phase
Africa’s expected 17 GW of solar installations in 2026, 45 percent annual growth and 75 percent distributed-solar share indicate that the continent’s renewable-energy market is undergoing a structural transformation.
The opportunity is spreading beyond South Africa to emerging markets where even relatively small projects can significantly increase national electricity generation. At the same time, Africa is beginning to develop local manufacturing, with capacity expected to quadruple to 3.5 GW, although China still supplies 94 percent of installed panels.
With annual installations potentially exceeding 33 GW by 2029, Africa’s solar market is increasingly becoming a broader energy-infrastructure opportunity spanning distributed generation, utility-scale projects, battery storage, mini-grids, financing, grid modernization and local manufacturing.
SHAFANA FAZAL