A new study commissioned by the Corporate Energy Buyers Association (CEBA) and conducted by NERA Economic Consulting reveals that restricting the deployment of new solar and wind energy projects could significantly increase electricity and natural gas costs across the United States, adding an estimated $121.2 billion in energy expenses between 2027 and 2033.
The report highlights that U.S. households could face an additional $81.2 billion in combined electricity and natural gas costs over the seven-year period, equivalent to $11.6 billion annually. Commercial and industrial (C&I) customers are projected to incur another $40 billion in electricity costs, or approximately $5.7 billion per year.
Higher Electricity Prices Across the U.S.
According to the analysis, limiting new solar and wind development would increase the average U.S. electricity price by as much as 6.1 percent from $37.4/MWh to $39.7/MWh between 2027 and 2033. The increase is comparable to adding an extra year of electricity inflation, which the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates is already running at around 5 percent annually.
The study indicates that average U.S. electricity prices could rise by as much as $2.3/MWh, reflecting the higher cost of generating power when low-cost renewable energy sources are constrained.
Texas Faces the Largest Economic Impact
The greatest burden would fall on consumers served by the Texas electricity market operated by ERCOT. Households in ERCOT could experience a 22.2 percent increase in average electricity costs from 2027 to 2033.
Across the Texas economy, residential, commercial, and industrial customers could pay an additional $21 billion in electricity costs during the seven-year period, averaging $3 billion annually.
Of this increase, Texas households would bear approximately $1 billion per year, totaling $7 billion cumulatively, while commercial and industrial customers would face about $2 billion annually, amounting to $14 billion over the period.
Regional Electricity Price Increases
The report shows that the impact of renewable energy constraints would vary by region:
ERCOT: Electricity prices rise by up to 22 percent
NYISO (New York): Prices increase by up to 11 percent
Western U.S. region: Prices rise by up to 9 percent
These increases reflect the growing importance of solar and wind resources in meeting rising electricity demand while maintaining affordable power prices.
Household Energy Bills Rise Sharply
The study estimates that restricting solar and wind deployment would increase household energy expenditures by $11.6 billion annually from 2027 through 2033.
This annual increase consists of:
$8.0 billion in additional natural gas costs
$3.6 billion in additional electricity costs
Over seven years, households would collectively spend an extra $81.2 billion on energy.
Renewable Energy Capacity Growth Under Permitting Neutrality
When solar and wind projects are allowed to compete without permitting restrictions, the study projects substantial deployment of low-cost renewable energy capacity between 2027 and 2033.
Expected cumulative additions include:
135–143 GW of solar capacity
274–297 GW of onshore wind capacity
Approximately 1 GW of solar-plus-storage capacity
41–42 GW of onshore wind-plus-storage capacity
These investments would help meet growing electricity demand while reducing upward pressure on power prices.
Greater Dependence on Natural Gas Raises Risks
The report warns that limiting renewable energy deployment would require significantly greater reliance on natural gas generation.
Natural gas capacity additions would need to be 60 percent to 72 percent higher than projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration through 2033.
The study notes that dependence on natural gas could expose consumers to greater fuel price volatility while creating reliability concerns due to constraints in gas turbine supply chains and rising equipment costs.
In addition, a less diversified electricity generation mix during peak demand periods could increase reliability risks for power systems across the country.
Renewable Energy Seen as Key to Managing Load Growth
The CEBA-commissioned analysis concludes that permitting neutrality and continued deployment of low-cost solar and wind resources can help offset electricity price increases driven by growing demand from households, businesses, manufacturing facilities, and emerging technologies.
By enabling the addition of 135–143 GW of solar and 274–297 GW of onshore wind capacity, the U.S. could reduce energy costs, limit exposure to fuel-price volatility, and strengthen long-term grid reliability while supporting rising electricity consumption through 2033.
BABURAJAN KIZHAKEDATH