Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to reach nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, representing an increase of around 65 percent compared with 2025 levels, according to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2026. Rising energy security concerns, expanding industrial demand, and the need for flexible power generation are expected to strengthen LNG’s position in the global energy mix over the coming decades.
The report highlights that 422 million tonnes of LNG were traded globally in 2025, with trade expected to expand further in 2026. However, geopolitical tensions have disrupted the market after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was severely affected, temporarily shutting in around one fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply. The disruption pushed Asian spot LNG prices sharply higher and created supply challenges for several Asian economies.
Despite the supply shock, the global LNG industry has demonstrated resilience. Increased liquefaction output from North America, improved production at existing LNG facilities, and slower LNG imports across parts of Asia have helped offset reduced exports from the Middle East. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal during the summer, global LNG trade in 2026 is expected to remain broadly similar to 2025, before returning to growth in 2027.
Nearly 180 Million Tonnes of New LNG Supply by 2030
Shell forecasts that approximately 180 million tonnes per year of new LNG liquefaction capacity will enter the global market by 2030. This additional supply is expected to improve LNG availability, moderate prices, and enable new importing countries to expand gas consumption.
However, infrastructure investment remains critical. Importing countries will require additional regasification terminals, pipeline connectivity, and storage facilities to fully benefit from rising LNG supplies, particularly across South and Southeast Asia.
South and Southeast Asia to Account for 40 Percent of LNG Imports
South and Southeast Asia are forecast to account for around 40 percent of global LNG imports by 2050, driven by rapid economic growth and rising electricity demand. LNG is expected to help these economies reduce dependence on coal while supporting lower-emission power generation.
In developed Asian markets such as Japan, the rapid expansion of AI data centres is emerging as a significant new driver of electricity demand, creating additional opportunities for natural gas-fired generation.
LNG Bunkering Market to Grow Seven-Fold by 2035
The report identifies LNG as a rapidly growing marine fuel. Global LNG bunkering demand is forecast to increase seven-fold to 27 million tonnes by 2035, exceeding the total volume of LNG imported by India during the previous year. Increasing environmental regulations and decarbonisation efforts across global shipping are expected to accelerate LNG adoption as a cleaner marine fuel.
Europe Continues to Depend on LNG
Europe is expected to remain a major LNG consumer as domestic natural gas production continues to decline. LNG will play an increasingly important role in balancing intermittent renewable energy generation while strengthening regional energy security.
To meet long-term demand, Shell estimates that around 200 million tonnes per year of additional LNG supply will be required during the 2030s and 2040s, beyond projects already under construction. This highlights the need for continued investment in new liquefaction plants worldwide.
LNG Market Shows Greater Resilience During Middle East Crisis
The report notes that Asian LNG spot prices briefly climbed above $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the peak of the Middle East conflict. However, prices remained well below the record levels seen during the 2022 energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, demonstrating improved market resilience.
Long-term contracts continue to dominate the industry, accounting for around two thirds of global LNG trade. As a result, the average LNG price paid by buyers in May 2026 remained relatively stable at around $11 to $12 per MMBtu, compared with $7 to $11 per MMBtu in January 2026 before the conflict began.
A Decade of Strong LNG Market Expansion
Shell’s LNG Outlook marks its 10th edition, highlighting the industry’s remarkable expansion since the first report was published in 2017.
During the past decade:
Global LNG trade increased by around 60 percent, rising from 264 million tonnes to 428 million tonnes.
China’s LNG imports expanded by approximately 250 percent.
The number of LNG-importing countries increased from 36 to 49.
The global fleet of LNG-fuelled ships grew from just 77 vessels to more than 800.
These trends underline LNG’s expanding role in supporting global energy security, industrial development, cleaner shipping, and the integration of renewable energy as worldwide demand continues to grow.
BABURAJAN KIZHAKEDATH