Greentech Lead Asia: The production of plug-in electric
vehicle (PEV) in China will fall well short of the government’s ambitious goals
of manufacturing 500,000 PEVs a year by 2015. However PEV market in China will
grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60 percent from 2012 to 2017,
surpassing 152,000 units sold annually by 2017 says Pike Research.
Although the Chinese government has made vehicle
electrification central to its aggressive plan and has created many national
and local incentives for plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) purchases, there is a
huge difference between production and sales, because many customers prefer
imported vehicles from US or Germany.
“The Chinese government initially overestimated consumer
demand for electric vehicles, and has made adjustments to its incentive
policies. Many members of the emerging middle and upper classes prefer imported
vehicles with nameplates from the United States or Germany – especially larger
sedans in which owners can sit comfortably while their drivers navigate China’s
often congested roads,” said John Gartner, research director, Pike Research.
Specifically, China is adjusting its program away from
battery electric vehicles to be more inclusive of hybrids and plug-in hybrids.
Still, the government will find it difficult to implement its policies.
The research firm finds that the country’s fragmented
regional governments and the close relationships between local governments and
local vehicle manufacturers have created problems in implementation, especially
for vehicle and technology standardization.
Competing interests, such as companies producing vehicles
with proprietary technologies, have already delayed the release of China’s
Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020),
making it difficult for companies to plan their investment in EV production and
infrastructure.
The report forecasts that China’s EV ambitions will
provide a huge boost to electric car development worldwide in the long run.